Department of Geography and Geoinformation Science

NSF grants to support novel space weather prediction models and cybersecurity that could help further non-terrestrial infrastructure

sholla4 — Thu, 15 Oct 2026 18:08:43 +0000

NSF grants to support novel space weather prediction models and cybersecurity that could help further non-terrestrial infrastructure sholla4 Thu, 10/15/2026 - 14:08

Our modern world relies on satellite networks, from television broadcasts, internet connectivity, cell phone service, GPS, defense, weather forecasting, and more. So, what happens when a major space weather event hits one of these satellites, such as a geomagnetic storm caused by a coronal mass ejection? And how can we forecast if these types of events are coming?

Edward Oughton. Photo provided

Edward Oughton, associate professor of geography and geoinformation science in the College of Science at 911��, was recently awarded two grants from the National Science Foundation: $499,837 for "AI-enabled, Uncertainty-Aware Space Weather Risk Characterization and Mitigation for Satellite Operations," and $49,357 as co-PI with Alexander Sprintson, professor and chair of the Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering in the College of Engineering and Computing, for "NSF Workshop on Security Challenges and Research Directions for Space and Non-Terrestrial Networks."

Impacts of space weather vary from minor signal interference to catastrophic satellite damage. But even signal interference, depending on severity, can have major ramifications for society. Disruptions to GPS satellites, for example, can cause inaccuracies in applications that require centimeter-level accuracy, like precision agriculture, or cause critical infrastructure systems that require GPS timing and synchronization signals to malfunction, like power grids or defense systems. Space weather can burn out key satellite components and knock satellites off their trajectories, costing their respective companies upwards of hundreds of millions of dollars.

“When you don’t have reliable forecasts, the critical infrastructure operators are going to take every forecast with a pinch of salt,” said Oughton. “We need to be able to predict and provide decent forecasts for these companies to be able to design systems that can withstand these space weather impacts.” Especially, he notes, as we increase space exploration. “With humans wanting to go back to the moon and then go beyond that, this is going to keep becoming more and more of an issue.”

The nearly $500,000 in funding supports the development of the first end-to-end framework for translating uncertainty in space weather forecasts into actionable risk information for satellite operations, and potential socio-economic impacts, similar to terrestrial weather prediction and risk assessment. This foundational research will combine multiple data sets into machine learning and physics-based models to narrow predictions of geomagnetic storm occurrence, timing, and severity, and their predicted impacts on the nation’s space infrastructure, the economy and society.

“We’re trying to move away from just using crude modeling assumptions to make estimated impacts, toward trying to do integrated scientific engineering modeling where we use the best methods and link them to impacts on the population and businesses,” explained Oughton.

Edward Oughton (top left) and Dennies Bor (bottom left) with ASSIP students. Photo provided.

Along with developing these novel tools, the grant’s education component ensures that the next generation of aspiring scientists and engineers have a hand in learning and creating this critical foundation. Each summer, Oughton takes on a group of high school students as part of the Aspiring Scientists Summer Internship Program (ASSIP).

“This is one thing 911�� does an amazing job with,” he said. Oughton had 25 ASSIP students this summer, working in groups led by his PhD students. “There’s a whole ecosystem of keen scientists coming from these local, high-quality high schools. They develop research projects. They produce research papers: I have examples of students getting first author on papers in peer-reviewed research journals. There’s so much magic happening there.”

Dennies Bor, PhD student in earth systems and geoinformation sciences, has worked with Oughton on previous NSF grants and expects to support this project as well. "Working with Professor Oughton has strengthened my technical skills in modeling, programming, and data analysis, as well as my ability to communicate research...these experiences are helping prepare me for a career as a research scientist," he said.

The second NSF grant will support a workshop convening researchers from academia, industry, and government to identify critical gaps and develop an agenda to improve cybersecurity of space and nonterrestrial networks.

“We’re seeing increased frequency and sophistication of cyberattacks on satellites, partially because the attack surface has massively expanded in recent years due to the huge expansion of global satellite constellations,” said Oughton. “It’s a rapidly evolving field, so we need to come together to sketch out what challenges these companies and organizations are facing and what are possible solutions for long-term security.”

Between these two grants, Oughton and his team are demonstrating the importance of interdisciplinary thinking when it comes to non-terrestrial challenges. “As geography and geo-information scientists, we bring something different to the party, quantitatively tying together different disciplines to support decisions in industry and government” he said. “And I believe both of these grants are great examples of what 911�� can do.”

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Department of Geography and Geoinformation Science

National Science Foundation

GCI-Space

Aspiring Scientists Summer Internship Program (ASSIP)

College of Engineering and Computing

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NASA-funded wildfire digital twin could save assets and lives with pollution prediction, burn forecasting

sholla4 — Thu, 15 Jan 2026 19:29:20 +0000

NASA-funded wildfire digital twin could save assets and lives with pollution prediction, burn forecasting sholla4 Thu, 01/15/2026 - 14:29

One year ago, the Palisades and Eaton Fires ravaged the coast of Southern California. Combined, the fires killed 28 people, destroyed more than 16,000 structures, and displaced tens of thousands of residents.

Wildfires are notoriously difficult to predict due to the multitude of factors that affect their growth, spread, and speed. That uncertainty makes it difficult for response teams to know who should be evacuated to avoid both active flames and hazardous air pollution. Mass evacuations require cooperation and communication across numerous departments, and getting those systems activated can take precious time that evacuees might not have if the fire is spreading at a rate of seven and a half football fields per minute as the Palisades fire did.

Chaowei "Phil" Yang. Photo by Office of University Branding.

One researcher at 911�� is working on a solution. Chaowei “Phil” Yang, professor in the Geography and Geoinformation Science Department in the College of Science, has teamed up with researchers from California State University—Los Angeles (CSU-LA), NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, and the City of Los Angeles to develop a wildfire digital twin to understand fire evolution and air pollution impact.

“The goal is to develop an artificial intelligence (AI)-based system that can provide real-time, high-resolution simulation and forecasting of wildfire behavior and model the resulting air pollution and air quality impacts for better informed public health responses,” Yang said.

Air pollution is a critical metric here. “Inhaling wildfire smoke can cause serious and long-lasting damage to the breathing system,” said Yang. “We need to get those people impacted to safety as well as those in direct line of the spreading flames.”

Yang, who is the director of the Center for Intelligent Spatial Computing for Water/Energy Science, has worked on several projects using his knowledge of geospatial cyberinfrastructure and spatial cloud computing to study the impacts of major global events on air quality. When the wildfires hit southern California, Yang felt that his expertise and resources could be used to help mitigate future wildfire disasters.

Yang’s work ties directly to improving human health, well-being, and preparedness, as well as building a climate-resilient society, two key solutions in 911��’s Grand Challenge Initiative, the university's research focus to enable us to live in a world of our choosing.

“Looking at the damage increasing because of climate change, to both assets and people’s life and health, that really triggered us,” Yang said. “We really felt that we needed to do something to address it.”

The digital twin will integrate a range of data from a diverse set of sources—such as satellites, UAVs, ground observations, and citizen reports—in order to forecast and simulate the progress of a wildfire and the mitigation of potential interventions. Everything from fuel sources, moisture, load, and consumption to wind speeds and temperatures to real-time sensors for the fire are pulled into the system.

911��’s high-performance computing (HPC) cluster is used to automate the data interpretation process, while machine learning modeling calibrates the data sets to increase accuracy. As more data sets become available, the model’s accuracy will increase.

“When we eventually provide information to firefighters and local agencies, we will give them a range of possibilities and a confidence level in those possibilities, such as ‘the fire will move in this direction with about 90% confidence, or 20% confidence,’” Yang explained. “That’s important for them when they’re trying to make these quick decisions about where to put fire fighters. It makes the information actionable instead of just data sets.”

While working on a bold solution to a grand challenge, the project is also an opportunity for students of all levels—from high school through post-doctoral—to get hands-on experience in cloud computing and digital transformation to address grand challenges.

Anusha Srirenganathan, PhD Earth Systems and Geoinformation Sciences ’25, joined the project during her time at 911��. “Working closely with researchers from different disciplines helped me grow as a collaborator, and my work on the project strengthened my abilities in large-scale satellite data processing, spatial cloud computing, and AI/ML modeling for environmental applications,” she said.

“We’re using these capabilities to cultivate the next generation workforce,” said Yang. “It’s eye-opening for the students and paves a path for them to become the future leaders of the nation.”

Securing a safer future for both the current and future generations is what drives Yang in his work. And he sees this work on a wildfire digital twin as only the beginning of what’s possible with the technology.

Yang said his team is already working on a Chesapeake Bay digital twin project to develop more accurate flood forecasting, and collaborating with Daniel Rothbart at the Carter School on a conflict resolution digital twin with an alert system. “There could be possibilities for this technology to help predict other natural disasters or forecasting conflict as it evolves,” Yang said. “It’s exciting to get the chance to utilize our knowledge and tools to address the grand challenges we’re facing today to hopefully save lives and reduce asset loss.”

“This experience has shown me that research can provide real value when it matters most,” Srirenganathan said.

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Department of Geography and Geoinformation Science

GCI-Grand Challenge Initiative

Center for Intelligent Spatial Computing for Water/Energy Science

Artificial Intelligence

GCI-Climate

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Satellite imagery could aid in seeking justice for human rights violations in Sudan

sholla4 — Wed, 21 Aug 2024 13:26:43 +0000

Satellite imagery could aid in seeking justice for human rights violations in Sudan sholla4 Wed, 08/21/2024 - 09:26

On April 15, 2023, intense violence erupted in Sudan’s capital city of Khartoum between the state-run military and a non-state militia group. Over the past 16 months, the conflict has continued to expand in scale. Peace negotiations have collapsed. Civilians have experienced catastrophic humanitarian conditions.

911��’s Daniel Rothbart has for many years investigated the plight of civilians in war globally. He believes that out of the 59 protracted violent conflicts around the world, the civil war in Sudan is among the most horrific.

“This conflict has had catastrophic humanitarian implications,” explained Rothbart, the Druscilla French Chair in Conflict Analysis and Resolution in the Jimmy and Rosalyn Carter School of Conflict Analysis and Resolution. “There have been an estimated 16,000 fatalities and numerous cities destroyed. Right now, Sudan has the largest number of internally displaced persons in the world at 10.7 million people.”

As peace talks failed and conflict escalated, the Conflict Observatory, managed by the MITRE Corp and funded by the U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization operations, approached Rothbart and the Carter School to support an investigation into the human rights violations associated with the civil war.

In areas of violent conflict, scholars like Rothbart must find remote methods of data collection. One such method is through Open Source Investigations (OSINT), where publicly and commercially available information, such as satellite imagery, social media posts, and news reports, are collected and analyzed.

Because the Conflict Observatory specifically requested satellite imagery evidence, Rothbart enlisted a team of researchers from the College of Science’s Department of Geography and Geoinformation Science, including department chair Dieter Pfoser, to gather and analyze the images. Through this method, they can show side-by-side images of the large-scale destruction of civilian areas over the course of the conflict, such as markets, neighborhoods, and health care facilities.

Comparison photos of an area of El Fasher, North Darfur, Sudan showcasing the destruction of civilian property as a result of the ongoing civil war, as featured in the Sudan Conflict Observatory Situation Report "Impact on Civilians from Fighting in El Fasher, North Darfur, May 9-27, 2024"

This is a valuable kind of data for understanding the impact and trend of protracted violence, Rothbart said. “It captures the evolution of events over time in a particular region, and the amount of detail these experts are able to gleam from these images has been used to great effect.” As detailed in the report, the experts can distinguish between a building burned and a building bombed: important evidence for building a future case in prosecuting human rights violations.

But satellite imaging only tells part of the story of the destruction and devastation. Other information comes from witness testimonies, which Rothbart and his team gather with the help of the Sudan Human Rights Hub. By combining these two methods of data collection, they can paint a more robust picture of the breadth and depth of violence.

“For example, with both testimonies and open-source intelligence, we have documented that some militant forces have systematically killed civilians, bombed hospitals, and engaged in large-scale gender-based violence, ” Rothbart said.

Through these reports, Rothbart and his team are the primary source of evidence of civilian devastation in the war in Sudan. And while the evidence submitted by the team is under the discretion of the State Department, it could be used to prosecute the perpetrators of the described human rights violations.

The project is also an opportunity for students to gain valuable experience. Current conflict analysis and resolution PhD student Beltina Gjeloshi, and alumnus Mathieu Bere, PhD Conflict Analysis and Resolution ‘22, are both supporting members of Rothbart’s team.

“I’ve learned best practices in open-source investigations, a myriad of new digital tools, and how to capture evidence via different channels, such as satellite images and social media,” said Gjeloshi. “Coupling the training with my human rights and conflict resolution background has allowed me to formulate unique insights and use tools transdisciplinarily.”

“This deliberate violence against civilians requires that the international community takes measures to enforce international humanitarian law, protect civilians, and hold perpetrators accountable. The work that we have been doing in this project contributes to the fulfillment of that moral and legal requirement,” said Bere.

Daniel Rothbart. Photo by Creative Services/Office of University Branding

"On a purely academic and scientific side, we have been using, and hope to contribute to improve, some innovative technological tools, especially OSINT and GIS tools, for remotely monitoring and documenting what is happening in conflict zones, and for conducting real-time conflict research,” said Bere. “For example, we are exploring the possibility of developing an AI model that will facilitate some of the steps of the data-gathering process that may be automated. The project is an interdisciplinary work, which requires collaboration between experts from various disciplines."

Every conflict is unique, but there are repeated patterns in motivations, actions, and strategies. Rothbart hopes that the global peace community can learn from why and how peace talks have been unsuccessful in Sudan to improve their approaches to other protracted conflicts.

“We must be prepared to recognize that under certain conditions human beings can commit horrific acts,” Rothbart explained. “But in every case of protracted violent conflict, we find human beings who show an enormous degree of courageous compassion in the face of horrific violence. And that’s important to keep in mind.”

Find pathways to peace at the Carter School

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Jimmy and Rosalynn Carter School for Peace and Conflict Resolution

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Department of Geography and Geoinformation Science

Mason team uses data to improve weather forecasting and takes top prize in competition

John Hollis — Thu, 23 Jan 2020 16:42:16 +0000

Mason team uses data to improve weather forecasting and takes top prize in competition John Hollis Thu, 01/23/2020 - 11:42

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Department of Geography and Geoinformation Science

NSF grants to support novel space weather prediction models and cybersecurity that could help further non-terrestrial infrastructure

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NASA-funded wildfire digital twin could save assets and lives with pollution prediction, burn forecasting

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Mason team uses data to improve weather forecasting and takes top prize in competition

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